For decades, the journey towards a greener economy has operated under the idea of a “Green Premium,” a term suggesting that choosing sustainability over fossil fuels will always cost more money. This thinking is outdated and counterproductive. We’re currently in the thick of a Green Revolution, redefining everything from electricity generation to transportation and housing. Rather than costing us a “premium,” these innovations are actually going to yield a “Green Bonus.”
Instead of viewing the financial aspects as a “do-gooder” burden, let’s call them what they really are – “transition costs.” These costs are about initial investment, laying the groundwork for more efficient, cost-effective systems in the future.
Take a historical example for perspective—the transition from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles. At first, cars were a luxury for the wealthy, a symbol of opulence rather than practicality. But look at how far we’ve come since then. Massive investments went into developing petroleum infrastructure (drilling, refining, gas stations, etc.) and road networks. Today, cars are a ubiquitous and efficient means of transportation, and it’s difficult to overstate the additional innovations and industries made possible by automobiles.
Success in our transition to renewables means achieving three key goals that constitute the Green Bonus: reduced carbon emissions, lower costs, and abundant power. Our advances in technology already indicate that achieving all three is not just possible but probable. This incredible victory is ours to lose.
When we talk about innovation, we’re essentially looking at an “S” curve. It starts slowly, accelerates, and eventually plateaus at an upper limit. We’re now at the fast-climbing part of that curve in many green sectors, and the ceiling goes higher than it ever did with fossil fuel capabilities. Let’s look at specifics:
Electricity – Both public and private analysts that evaluate the “Levelized Cost of Energy” (LCOE)” have determined that wind and solar combined with storage is less expensive than fossil fuel-based electricity. This doesn’t even account for the environmental benefits If you include the cost of carbon abatement in the form of carbon capture or a carbon tax, the cost saving is even more dramatic. Solar, wind, and storage will likely continue to get less expensive in the next several years as they are still relatively early in their innovation cycles. Plus, certain large-scale carbon-free energy sources like off-shore wind and nuclear will likely become cheaper than fossil fuel-based power soon.
Transportation: Operating an electric vehicle (EV) is already cheaper than running a car with an internal combustion engine, thanks to the cost of electricity and improved engine efficiency. EVs and traditional vehicles are nearing parity in terms of total ownership costs, and that’s without accounting for governmental incentives for EVs. When rebates and tax incentives are factored in EVs often save their owners money over the life of the vehicle. EVs are very early in their development and promise significant improvement in cost, range, charging efficiency, and driving experience in the coming years.
Heating and Cooling: The focus on building decarbonization covers a lot, from materials to design to HVAC systems. But let’s zoom in on HVAC and water heating, which actively consume energy. Heat pumps are showing great promise. They run on electricity—increasingly generated in a carbon-neutral manner—and are becoming cheaper to operate compared to traditional systems, especially when paired with localized power sources like rooftop solar. A transition to heat pumps will make cooling more abundant, a necessity as more and more cities see multiple days and weeks of dangerously high temperatures.
Manufacturing and Agriculture: Though not detailed here, both of these huge sectors are making steady strides in efficiency and cost-effectiveness, often through electrification, which will likely be cheaper and more abundant as we continue to innovate.
It is difficult to predict exactly how the energy picture will change as we get further into the green energy revolution, but it represents a reinvention. We are already electrifying systems that used to run on fossil fuels. We are adopting electric cars and seeing an ever-increasing operational cost advantage. Air conditioning is already getting more abundant and cheaper. It is not true that we have to choose between clean, abundant, and affordable energy – we can have all three.
It’s time we stop thinking about green energy costs as a premium. We need to continue to evaluate and make smart capital investments and support new green innovation. The resulting “green bonus” will do more than reduce carbon; it will bring significant cost savings and abundance that will dramatically improve our quality of life.